You can check out my latest blog post below - or find it on my website here: Decision Making​

Decision Making: Go with your gut or decide with data?

As a business owner, you face decisions every day. Some of them are easy: Do I really need a second cup of coffee before this morning’s meeting? (Yes. The answer is always yes.)

And some of them are much harder: How can I plan next year’s budget when I have no idea what my suppliers will be charging me next month?

How Do You Make Strategic Business Decisions?

So how do you make the more challenging decisions? The strategic ones, related to growing your business, making pivots, training employees, finding new customers and so forth?

Do you shoot from the hip? Go with your gut? Let your instincts guide you?

It’s tempting these days. With tariffs changing the cost of doing business, geopolitical tensions rattling supply chains, and an economy that keeps sending mixed signals, who has time to research when everything is changing? You’re certainly not alone in feeling unsure: the NFIB’s Uncertainty Index came in at 90 in September, far above its historical average of 68. As one small business owner told the Dallas Fed, “People don’t want to make decisions with uncertainty.”

Or do you research, analyze, review, create decision trees, read studies, and let the data be your guide?

I’m sure you’re thinking I’m going to promote the latter, given my career as a market researcher. But here’s the thing. Despite my data-driven decision-making proclivity, I will acknowledge that a balance is key. Of course I’m not the only one saying that, as anyone who has read the classic “Thinking Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman will tell you.

But how do you find the right balance? How valuable is all that data? And when is it too much data?

Data-Driven Decision Making vs. Gut Instinct

You can find plenty of business advice telling you to focus on data and not to just “trust your gut”. And now, with AI tools that can produce a polished analysis in seconds, that push is stronger than ever. Deloitte’s 2026 Global Human Capital Trends survey found that 60% of executives now regularly use AI to support their decisions. But more data isn’t automatically better. Deloitte also points to an Oracle study in which 72% of leaders said that the sheer volume of data, and not trusting it, had stopped them from making a decision at all.

But then there is a growing chorus countering that gut instinct still matters in the age of AI. The folks at IMD business school suggest using your intuition as a filter: if an AI recommendation doesn’t feel right, that’s your cue to go find out why.

They are both right, to some extent. And a good market researcher knows that it’s the combination of as much data as you can find, along with your own internal processing of that data, that leads to good decision making.

How Data Feeds Your Gut Instinct

The data doesn’t make the decision for you, it merely guides your gut instinct in the right direction. As a matter of fact, I believe that your gut instinct when it comes to decision making at your business is really a combination of all the information you already know about your business, your customers and your industry. It’s just already in your head, so it seems more like “gut” than “data”.

In that way, we can say that the data “feeds” your gut to help drive your instinct. And just like your diet, it’s important that you focus on fresh and healthy options (aka recent and reliable options). And don’t be afraid to look for new sources. That matters even more when the ground keeps shifting under your feet, because last year’s assumptions can make for a pretty shaky foundation.

It also means treating AI like a very fast research assistant. It’s great for gathering and summarizing information, but you’re still the one who knows your customers, your team and your town. If an answer doesn’t pass your gut check, dig deeper before you act on it.

Types of Data to Support Your Business Decisions

Let’s talk about some different types of data that might support your gut instinct when making strategic decisions.

• Sales data: What do you know about your customers and your suppliers already? Do you reach out to them with questions or surveys to gauge satisfaction or to just get some honest feedback? Have you asked your suppliers what price changes are coming? In the NFIB’s tariff survey, small business owners said they most often talk tariffs over with other small business owners (roughly two-thirds) and their vendors (just over half), so those conversations are clearly happening. But do you have systems in place to capture this feedback and summarize or review it? In working with small businesses, I have found that the sales team typically is a wealth of knowledge about customers, but often that information is only stored in the heads of the sales force. Can you capture their knowledge base in a different way that might help drive decisions about meeting customer needs?
• Digital Marketing data: This goes without saying, but nearly every company relies on digital marketing now. The advantage of digital marketing over some of the more traditional marketing channels is that you have some actual data to measure potential customer interaction with your website. Make sure your company is tracking this and making decisions based on this feedback. Which pages on your site or posts on social media seem to get the most attention? Are you capturing email addresses of potential customers to follow up? What works and what doesn’t when trying to engage customers online? And keep an eye on where your visitors are coming from, since AI-generated search summaries and chatbots are changing how people find (and compare) businesses like yours.
• Competitor insights: Sure, everyone checks out the competitor websites, but how else are you seeking out information on what your top competitors are doing? Have you set up Google Alerts? Do you follow your competitors on LinkedIn, X or Facebook? How does their online presence compare to yours? Are there any comment sections or reviews you can find about them to see where they might be leaving gaps that you can take advantage of? What about employee comments on sites like Glassdoor? Or information from your current customers who may know about your competitors? Where can you find information to help you better position yourself against your top competitors?
• Industry trends: Industry information about your own industry or that of your customers can also be a great resource when decision making. There is no need to buy those super expensive market research reports. You can find a lot of valuable information with just a little digging. Try to find answers to some key questions: Is the industry growing or shrinking? Why? How many players are in the industry and are there a few who dominate? What are some key trends in the industry and some leading indicators? Much of this can be found through State of the Industry reports from trade associations and industry journals, and also through government sources like the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Keep Your Decision-Making Fresh in Uncertain Times

Take it from this professional market researcher and feed your brain (and your gut) regularly by subscribing to relevant online resources, seeking out new information as it comes out, and optimizing any internal information to make it easier to find and use. And remember, as small businesses we have a built-in advantage: we can act on what we learn much faster than the big guys. Even an hour a week of strategic thinking and research can keep your gut well fed.

Do you know of any cool tools or resources that help you in your data-driven decision-making process? Share them with me!